Hello all! I would like to share a little bit of what I have done this month working on Going for Gold.
Development Log 3: Creating Country Ratings from Real-World Results
I'm a few days late, but I wanted to get in my July update. I have been continuing to build databases, and in July, I finally finished all of the results for Winter Sports, so I wanted to share those here. Basically, I took each of the game's 65 countries, and inputted real-life records regarding medal total, qualifications (for both Winter Games and World Championships), and most recent yearly results for the winter sports season. Then, a coefficient value is calculated.
The coefficient is a decimal between 0 and 1. 1, a perfect score, is basically not possible in real life. It indicates a country that wins every possible medal in every possible situation, every time for the entire history of a sport. In reality, a coefficient above .9 reflects historical dominance in a sport, and I have only seen two examples thus far (Chinese table tennis and American basketball). A coefficient in the range of .7 usually indicates that the country is the best in their given sport at that time, while a coefficient of above .5 indicates that the country will be a consistent producer of medal winners. Coefficients around .15 indicate that the country is average, while a coefficient of 0 indicates that nobody from that country ever medals or even places at international events.
What I'd like to share today is the top-rated country, and the corresponding coefficient value, in each winter sport. These are based on real-world data, and should be a good indicator of future performance in real-world winter games as well.
Alpine Skiing (Speed) = Austria (.6705)
Alpine Skiing (Slalom) = Austria (.6850)
Biathlon = Germany (.6582)
Bobsleigh = Germany (.7502)
Cross-Country Skiing (Distance) = Norway (.7204)
Cross-Country Skiing (Sprint) = Norway (.7653)
Curling = Canada (.7711)
Figure Skating = Russia (.6491)
Freestyle Skiing (Moguls) = Canada (.6809)
Freestyle Skiing (Aerials) = China (.6908)
Freestyle Skiing (Skicross) = Canada (.6930)
Freestyle Skiing (General) = USA (.7217)
Ice Hockey = Canada (.8302)
Luge = Germany (.8201)
Nordic Combined = Germany (.6578)
Short Track Speed Skating = South Korea (.7165)
Skeleton = Germany (.5088)
Ski Jumping = Germany (.5899)
Freestyle Snowboarding = USA (.7185)
Snowboardcross = France (.5795)
Alpine Snowboarding = Austria (.6414)
Speed Skating (Sprint ) = Netherlands (.6602)
Speed Skating (Distance) = Netherlands (.7403)
These coefficients will eventually be used to give each team a numerical rating number between 20 and 99, with 99 being the highest possible value. No one seen here would receive a 99, as that will be reserved for the aforementioned outliers (Chinese table tennis/USA basketball/etc.) . If you're curious about how a particular country does in a particular sport, just let me know, or if you'd like to see the whole table, I would be happy to share.