Mathematical precision in baseball games?

[tinpanalley 1]

This is my first post because I've only just recently gotten into strategy games by way of OOTP. Then I learned more about these games from people who grew up playing card and dice games, what they like about video games, what they don't like, etc. But then I realised I didn't know anything about what exactly made OOTP work and the card and dice games function on a specific probabilities system. I started doing more research...

 

So I suppose I'm looking for the opinions of people who are fans of card and dice games, board games, text-based sims, even simulation games (MVP, High Heat, The Show). Everyone will have different opinions I'm guessing, but I feel there must be an answer.

The question...
As time passes, perhaps like many of you, I find my interest in sports grows more and more into the intricacies of the math of the sports. Particularly with Baseball. So, is there a way to determine which of the computer games, not card and dice or board games, gives the most mathematically statistical accuracy? I mean, people tout OOTP as statistically supreme but what do we really know about their engine? Do they share how they calculate things? Cards, as I've learned from reading a lot online, base their outcomes and probabilities on players' previous performance.

There's a deeper conversation here about how much stats even matter at all as anything more than representations of former performance but that's a whole other question, probably even a whole other forum.
Thanks guys!