GHL playoff matchups

[rainsilent 469]

East:

#1 Cedar Rapids Minutemen vs #8 Netherhill Nightmares.

45-7-2-26 151pts / 32-10-10-28 126pts

Regular season stats: Minutemen / Nightmare

Goals for: 255 (4th) / 237 (13th)

Goals against: 191 (3rd) / 220 (12th)

PP: 21.8% (8th) / 21% (11th)

PK: 86.1% (3rd) / 78.5% (18th)

Shooting %: 9.8% (1st) / 7.8% (18th)

Save %: 92.7% (4th) / 92.3% (12th)

PDO: 1.025 (1st) / 1.002 (12th)

CF: 1245 (24th) / 1342 (14th)

CA: 1151 (3rd) / 1321 (13th)

Corsi %: 52% (8th) / 50.4% (14th)

Season match up: 3 wins Minutemen, 1 OT win Nightmare.

 

Statistically this was a close match up during the regular season with only one game being decided by more than one goal. As a result, I expect this match up to be a lot closer than the statistics may otherwise say. The Nightmare are a solid overall team that aren't to be discounted due to their 8th seed. Combine that with the fact that the Minutemen played well above expectations for the season (especially with a shooting% and PDO so abnormally high when CF is taken into account) and I would give this match up a serious consideration for upset alert.

 

#2 Slaughterville Red Tide vs #7 Lake Valley Bulldogs

46-4-3-27 149pts / 35-10-4-31 129pts

Regular season stats: Red Tide / Bulldogs

Goals for: 266 (2nd) / 255 (5th)

Goals against: 200 (6th) / 245 (21st)

PP: 19.8% (16th) / 22.8% (5th)

PK: 79.1% (16th) / 81.1% (12th)

Shooting %: 9.2% (4th) / 9.7% (2nd)

Save %: 93.2% (1st) / 91.2% (24th)

PDO: 1.024 (2nd) / 1.008 (10th)

CF: 1535 (1st) / 1302 (19th)

CA: 1202 (7th) / 1420 (21st)

Corsi %: 56.1% (2nd) / 47.8% (21st)

Season match up: 3 wins Red Tide, 1 win Bulldogs.

 

The season series was notably in favor of the Red Tide as one game was on the verge of a blowout while another was an out right blowout. The Bulldogs are going to have to find a way to improve their 5 on 5 play defensively or this could be a short series. The middle of the pack special teams for the Red Tide could potentially keep the Bulldogs in the series and appears to be the most likely reason for the series to drag on.

 

#3 Sheshegwaning Dragons vs #6 Big Delta Stealheads

44-3-11-22 149pts / 36-7-7-30 129pts

Regular season stats: Dragons / Stealheads

Goals for: 263 (3rd) / 239 (12th)

Goals against: 205 (8th) / 199 (5th)

PP: 24.9% (2nd) / 16.6% (22nd)

PK: 86.3% (2nd) / 83.9% (6th)

Shooting %: 8.9% (7th) / 8.8% (8th)

Save %: 92.4% (9th) / 92.3% (10th)

PDO: 1.013 (4th) / 1.012 (5th)

CF: 1466 (3rd) / 1313 (18th)

CA: 1261 (9th) / 1098 (2nd)

Corsi %: 53.8% (4th) / 54.5% (3rd)

Season match up: 1 win Dragons, 3 wins Stealheads.

 

This matchup is my official upset alert for the East. Outside of the poor powerplay of the Stealheads these two teams are statistically near mirror images. The question is if the current goaltending for the Dragons can hold up to the quite potent offense of the Stealheads? The Dragons shipped out the goalie they had as their starter for most of the season. This is going to be either a lopsided series due to poor goaltending or one heck of a close series.

 

#4 Sault Ste Marie Battlin Bears vs #5 Mango Duhawks

43-4-3-30 140pts / 37-7-6-30 131pts

Regular season stats: Battlin Bears / Duhawks

Goals for: 232 (14th) / 226 (16th)

Goals against: 209 (9th) / 216 (11th)

PP: 19.1% (18th) / 19.8% (17th)

PK: 85.9% (4th) / 77.1% (23rd)

Shooting %: 7.9% (16th) / 8.1% (13th)

Save %: 91.8% (16th) / 92.1% (15th)

PDO: .997 (17th) / 1.002 (13th)

CF: 1388 (9th) / 1382 (10th)

CA: 1293 (10th) / 1323 (14th)

Corsi %: 51.8% (9th) / 51.1% (10th)

Season match up: 2 wins Battlin Bears, 2 wins Duhawks.

 

This is very likely to be a close series. The regular season games were. Based upon the regular season stats I think it is most likely to be decided by the PK of each team. The Battlin Bears had one of the best. The Duhawks had one of the worst. In every other way these teams are very close statistically. It could be a short series due to the PK difference but the Battlin Bears PP is too iffy for me to fully buy into the poor PK of the Duhawks as being as significant a drawback as it likely should be.

 

West

#1 Kegashka Prairie Stars vs #8 Eastern Outlaws.

47-11-2-20 165pts / 34-7-7-32 123pts

Regular season stats: Prairie Stars / Outlaws

Goals for: 246 (10th) / 214 (18th)

Goals against: 164 (1st) / 204 (7th)

PP: 22.3% (7th) / 18.5% (19th)

PK: 82.6% (8th) / 77.8% (20th)

Shooting %: 8% (15th) / 7.7% (19th)

Save %: 93% (3rd) / 93.1% (2nd)

PDO: 1.010 (7th) / 1.009 (9th)

CF: 1403 (6th) / 1344 (13th)

CA: 1223 (8th) / 1181 (5th)

Corsi %: 53.4% (5th) / 53.2% (6th)

Season match up: 2 wins and 1 SO win Prairie Stars, 1 wins Outlaws.

 

The Outlaws are a solid team with very good goaltending and team play. Everything else about them is below average. On the other side is the Prairie Stars with the best record in the league but rather underwhelming stats for a team that more or less ran away with the best record by 14 points. Almost everything about them is good but only the 5 on 5 goals against is truly great. I would have expected more statistically with such a record. In terms of the match up the big question is can the Outlaws score and can their special teams be better than it was in the regular season? Against the Prairie Stars it is going to be tough as their two wins were big ones over the Outlaws.

 

#2 West Chicago Hawks vs #7 Scandinavia Steelers

42-7-8-23 148pts / 35-9-5-31 128pts

Regular season stats: Hawks / Steelers

Goals for: 249 (8th) / 200 (25th)

Goals against: 183 (2nd) / 194 (4th)

PP: 24.1% (3rd) / 20.2% (15th)

PK: 82.5% (9th) / 87.2% (1st)

Shooting %: 7.6% (20th) / 7.4% (22nd)

Save %: 92.5% (6th) / 92.5% (7th)

PDO: 1.001 (14th) / .999 (16th)

CF: 1448 (5th) / 1184 (25th)

CA: 1389 (16th) / 1160 (4th)

Corsi %: 51% (11th) / 50.5% (13th)

Season match up: 4 wins Hawks.

 

The Steelers are a bit of a mystery to me. They have a very good group of forwards but the team struggles mightily offensively. They didn't do well against the Hawks in the regular season because of it losing all four games. On the same token the Hawks offense under performed as well 5 on 5 with a very poor shooting percentage themselves. This could be a series dragged on by the stingy defense of the Steelers facing off against the lackluster 5 on 5 offense of the Hawks but the Steelers have to find a way to score to do it. This series is going to come down to if the Steelers can find some offense or not.

 

#3 Enigma Rage vs #6 Vauban Tomahawks

42-5-5-28 141pts / 36-9-6-29 132pts

Regular season stats: Rage / Tomahawks

Goals for: 248 (9th) / 253 (6th)

Goals against: 230 (15th) / 222 (13th)

PP: 22.9% (4th) / 17.7% (21st)

PK: 83.3% (7th) / 81.8% (11th)

Shooting %: 8.8% (9th) / 9.5% (3rd)

Save %: 92.1% (14th) / 92.3% (11th)

PDO: 1.009 (8th) / 1.018 (3rd)

CF: 1354 (12th) / 1319 (16th)

CA: 1198 (5th) / 1313 (11th)

Corsi %: 53.1% (7th) / 50.1% (15th)

Season match up: 1 win Rage, 2 wins and 1 SO win Tomahawks

 

This series is my upset alert for the West. The Rage are a very good statistical team overall. Its one statistical blemish is its 5 on 5 goals against. The Tomahawks are a good team themsleves with one very good strength. 5 on 5 goals for. It is the biggest weakness of one team against the biggest strength of the other team. This has the potential to be a very close series that could also go heavily one way or the other. If the Tomahawks can continue their 5 on 5 excellence it will be trouble for Rage. The Rage have the special teams to otherwise win the series if not keep the games close.

 

#4 Ithaca Ricochet vs #5 Yonker Wolverines

40-7-4-29 138pts / 41-4-3-32 134pts

Regular season stats: Ricochet / Wolverines

Goals for: 253 (7th) / 269 (1st)

Goals against: 213 (10th) / 241 (20th)

PP: 21% (12th) / 22.8% (6th)

PK: 80% (14th) / 75.2% (27th)

Shooting %: 8.4% (11th) / 9.1% (5th)

Save %: 91.6% (18th) / 90.6% (27th)

PDO: 1.000 (15th) / .997 (19th)

CF: 1452 (4th) / 1474 (2nd)

CA: 1503 (25th) / 1541 (27th)

Corsi %: 49.1% (17th) / 48.9% (18th)

Season match up: 3 wins Ricochet, 1 win Wolverines

 

This is the series that I am most looking forward to. It has the greatest potential for some wild games. Each of the four games in the regular season was. For one team you can forget about defense. It doesn't exist. Its not a thing. The other team is a team that plays a high tempo style of play given the lot of shots for and against 5 on 5. I'm excited for this series simply because it is very likely going to be a lot of speed, shots and general back and forth, high tempo action. Who is going to win? Who cares? It is going to very likely be one heck of a show.

[AlexanderRasputin 149]

Great analysis! 

Good luck to all the playoff teams.

[Peekaboo 67]

Great stuff Rain

Here is my prediction

Minuteman - Nightmares 3-1

Red Tide - Bulldogs 3-1

Dragons - Stealheads 3-2 (a bit biased, cant go against my team haha)

Duhawks - Battlin Bears 0-3

 

Praire Stars - Outlaws 3-2

Hawks - Steelers 3-0

Rage - Tomahawks 1-3

Ricochet - Wolverines 1-3

 

And good luck to everyone!

[Ana (Natives) 24]

Great job rain! Will definetly follow playoff in GHL!

[bouncer 215]

Great job, rainsilent!

[ElvyJ 3]

when you have nothing else to do  , great job 

[Paul T 791]

I haven't followed the West that much this season, but agree that Ricochet vs. Wolverines is probably the most exciting first round match-up.  Also, Rage is always my sleeper pick to turn it on in the playoffs.  Their coach is a lunatic and the players are downright scared to fail.

In the East, the Nightmares and Bulldogs are solid teams, but the Minutemen and Red Tide are firing on all cylinders.  Bears vs. Duhawks should be the most even series.  For some reason I have always confused these two teams, as far back as season 1, so it's funny they are matched up against each other. 

And my series with Peek's Dragons seems like a very even match-up on paper.  I like my team, but have come to realize we have some major holes to fix.  For starters, my goalie is already tired.  Jesus.  People talk about goalies blowing games for their respective teams this season, but I'd be willing to bet Amick has blow more games than every other goalie this season... games that the performance ratings and game stats suggest we otherwise would have won.  So my options are a tired/exhausted goalie... an anxious goalie... or a 79-rated affiliate goalie.  Again, I really like my team, but the past two seasons we've had the #2 seed and have won a combined 2 games, getting bounced by lower seeds.  This is also the 3rd straight season where we have been on a cold streak heading into the playoffs.  Would I be surprised if I win... maybe not.  But until the Stealheads prove they can win a playoff series, I don't have much confidence in them.  My only shot is if the Dragons goalies under-perform.

Either way, thanks for pulling this together, Rain.  Good luck to everyone!

[Paul T 791]

In addition to the series above, don't forget about the two battles to avoid relegation.  In some ways these are more intense as there's so much to lose.

East:  Former GHL champion Stray Cats vs. Patriots.

West:  and old Biscuit rivalry, Vandals vs. Elite

 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Paul T

[Paul T 791]

On 1/2/2020 at 9:20 AM, Paul T said:

And my series with Peek's Dragons seems like a very even match-up on paper.  I like my team, but have come to realize we have some major holes to fix.  For starters, my goalie is already tired.  Jesus.  People talk about goalies blowing games for their respective teams this season, but I'd be willing to bet Amick has blown more games than every other goalie this season

What was that?

[Steve 326]

Just going to leave this here....

The Elite are the first GHL team to win TWO Relegation Playoff matchups!  

HA!  

[rainsilent 469]

Round two: No regular season stats anymore because it is the second round of the playoffs.

 

#2 Red Tide vs #3 Dragons

Regular season series: 1W and 1OTW Red Tide, 2W Dragons.

 

The two best teams in the East face off. It was a close series in the regular season and it will likely be close in the playoffs so long as the goaltending for the Dragons holds up. If it doesn't this is very likely to be a short series.

 

#4 Battlin Bears vs #8 Nightmares

Regular season series: 2SOW Battlin Bears, 2W Nightmares.

 

The two wins by the Nightmare were the last two meetings between these two teams and the games weren't close. I still think this is going to be a close series though however the Battlin Bears are the underdogs in my mind as I think the Nightmares have the better team.

 

#1 Prairie Stars vs #5 Wolverines

Regular season series: 2W Prairie Stars, 2W Wolverines

 

The regular season series between the two was a split and the entire series was actually close. The Wolverines has the offense to keep pace if it becomes a scoring race. The real question is if the Prairie Stars can take control of the games with their more complete team.

 

#2 Hawks vs #6 Tomahawks

Regular season series: 2W Hawks, 2W Tomahawks

 

Another series that was split however the series was rather lopsided with a win for each team that wasn't close at all. The Tomahawks were a great 5 on 5 scoring team while the Hawks struggled to score 5 on 5. I think this is going to be another close series determined by whatever team happens to play better 5 on 5.

[Peekaboo 67]

So, in the end I managed to guess 7 winners out of 8, only Minuteman failed to fit in my projections  So, round 2...

 

Dragons - Red Tide 3-2 (I would say here that Tide are favorites 60-40, but as I said before, can't go against my own team hehe)

Battlin Bears - Nightmares 3-2 (I will go with the Joe here)

Prairie Stars - Wolverines 3-2 (nice team by Wolveries, but Stars are winning Cup this year)

Hawks - Tomahawks 2-3 (my pick for surprise, based on nothing but wild guess)

 

Ta-da

[AlexanderRasputin 149]

11 hours ago, rainsilent said:

#2 Red Tide vs #3 Dragons

Regular season series: 1W and 1OTW Red Tide, 2W Dragons.

 

The two best teams in the East face off. It was a close series in the regular season and it will likely be close in the playoffs so long as the goaltending for the Dragons holds up. If it doesn't this is very likely to be a short series.

Goaltending is a problem on both sides. Beaudoin has a piss-poor track record past the 1st round and needs to step up.

Whichever goalie blinks first in this series, will lose.

[Steve 326]

I think Wolverines pull the upset against the Stars having played both teams so often.  And Hawks look like they are getting back towards their Biscuit style domination!?!  Not good news for any of us!  But I can root for them for at least one playoff run this year, ha!

I think it will be Dragons vs Nightmares (rematch?) in the East.  Both teams gave me lots of problems this year and I think if they don't have any individual breakdowns, both teams can win 3 of 5 against their opponents.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Steve

[Tyrod Gibson 35]

48 minutes ago, Steve said:

I think it will be Dragons vs Nightmares (rematch?) in the East.  Both teams gave me lots of problems this year and I think if they don't have any individual breakdowns, both teams can win 3 of 5 against their opponents.

I recall the Dragons sweeping rounds to the cup finals last season with his only loss coming from the Nightmares .

[Paul T 791]

Wow, so the regular season series between all the current match-ups was 2-2.  These quarterfinals should be very close.  I agree that the Dragons and Red Tide are the two best teams in the East - and will be for quite some time.  They are starting to get a little rivalry going, which is great.  The Prairie Stars and Hawks have been the two best teams out West and I don't see that changing any time soon either.  But we all know that anything can happen in the playoffs, which is what keeps it exciting. 

And rainsilent - great season for you despite the early playoff exit.  I was impressed with what you were able to accomplish with a team without much super star power.  Taking nothing away from the Nightmares as Tyrod always puts together a solid team (think they are much better than 8th place btw), but the OT and double SO losses were a rough way to end it - and I still think the fact that we can't edit our SO lineup makes it frustrating at times.  On paper this was more like a 3/6 or 4/5 match-up.

Good luck to all remaining.

[Peekaboo 67]

Don't forget one important thing, guys... I have Shimon Bart. Don't be fooled by his somewhat poor appearance, he's the real winner. 

Season 1, GHL, Golden Cup Winner with St. Thomas Stray Cats

Season 2, GHL, Golden Cup Winner with Sheshegwaning Dragons

Edited January 9, 2020 by Peekaboo

[rainsilent 469]

4 hours ago, Paul T said:

And rainsilent - great season for you despite the early playoff exit.  I was impressed with what you were able to accomplish with a team without much super star power.  Taking nothing away from the Nightmares as Tyrod always puts together a solid team (think they are much better than 8th place btw), but the OT and double SO losses were a rough way to end it - and I still think the fact that we can't edit our SO lineup makes it frustrating at times.  On paper this was more like a 3/6 or 4/5 match-up.

 

Thanks. I was genuinely expecting to lose the series before it started. I put that would be upset alert there for a reason. Losing it in OT fashion doesn't bother me much at all. I'd rather that than any other result. I personally had the Nightmare as the 4th best team in the conference. In comparison I don't rank my team better than 7th on the best day and it is technically the 12th most talented roster in the East. The final team making up that top 4 in my book didn't make the playoffs. Well, they made the wrong playoffs if you will.

[Tyrod Gibson 35]

5 hours ago, rainsilent said:

Thanks. I was genuinely expecting to lose the series before it started. I put that would be upset alert there for a reason. Losing it in OT fashion doesn't bother me much at all. I'd rather that than any other result. I personally had the Nightmare as the 4th best team in the conference. In comparison I don't rank my team better than 7th on the best day and it is technically the 12th most talented roster in the East. The final team making up that top 4 in my book didn't make the playoffs. Well, they made the wrong playoffs if you will.

10 hours ago, Paul T said:

And rainsilent - great season for you despite the early playoff exit.  I was impressed with what you were able to accomplish with a team without much super star power.  Taking nothing away from the Nightmares as Tyrod always puts together a solid team (think they are much better than 8th place btw), but the OT and double SO losses were a rough way to end it - and I still think the fact that we can't edit our SO lineup makes it frustrating at times.  On paper this was more like a 3/6 or 4/5 match-up.

 

I'm still against having S/O in the playoffs all together, and thank you for your flattery it means a lot coming from other top managers. i had a pretty slow start to the season as i was (and still am) retooling/Rebuilding as most of the top players are unobtainable at the moment, But of all the playoffs we've had since season 1, this one stacked up in my favor the most (Considering i played the Dragons and Red Tide in the 1st round in the first 2 seasons.)

 

 

[Paul T 791]

The Hawks and Prairie Stars are both on #@*k!&g fire and about to collide! 

[rainsilent 469]

Conference Finals

 

East: #3 Sheshegwaning Dragons vs #4 Sault Ste Marie Battlin Bears

Regular season series: 1 win Dragons, 2 Wins and 1SO win Battlin Bears

 

On paper this seems like a rather lopsided match up. The Dragons have incredible offensive and defensive depth. Their one concern is goaltending. This team is currently looking a lot like the 09-10 Philadelphia Flyers as a result. On the other side is the Battlin Bears. A team where no player really jumps out at you yet it is a solid overall team. Its playoff run is being pushed along by excellent play by its defensive core. I think this series is going to be decided by the goalies. Neither team has an all star starter but both of them still have a capable #1 option. Whichever #1 outplays the other is going to very likely decide the series.

 

West: #1 Kegashka Prairie Stars vs #2 West Chicago Hawks

Regular season series: 3 wins Prairie Stars, 1 win Hawks

 

Both teams swept through the opposition in the prior rounds to get to this match up. The Prairie Stars have gotten here off of the play of their best players who have been dominant. The Hawks have gotten to this point through their entire team dominating the other team. The Prairie Stars are more top heavy talent wise but have more top end offensive talent to show for it. I think this series is going to come down to if the team effort by the Hawks can be enough to beat the effort of the best players of the Prairie Stars.

[Peekaboo 67]

My teams needs to score and thats the only way for me to reach the finals.

They can do that and they did it so far. I tweaked my line-up after first game against Stealheads and its working, to my surprise.

As for Bears... I really struggled against them in regular season. Even managed to get worse franchise loss (1-6), few days before playoffs started.

Despite that, I would put both Red Tide and Paul's Stealheads above Battlin Bears in my rankings, but that doesn't speak much.

I would say that biggiest thing in my favor would be home ice advantage, in a season where I am, for some reason, heavy home team.

Lets see if we can live up to that and go to finals. Which would be, after I shipped off Real, incredible result.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Peekaboo

[bouncer 215]

Prairie Stars vs. Hawks is becoming a true rivalry. We have faced in the same situation in S1, but both teams were not so dominant in the previous series, especially Hawks after 2 exhausting 3-2 wins were simply tired to take out the best team in the league, considering talent. 

This is going to be nail-bitter, I hope. I know i'm capable of blanking Prairie Stars, but they start home and are incredibly strong. 

At least I hope there will be SC champion from West for once :-P

[Peekaboo 67]

Nay bother, big man, nay bother

[Tyrod Gibson 35]

A little late but, Great series by both the Battlin Bears (Joe Leconte) and The Minutemen (Rainsilent). both series were filled with 1 goal games that were filled with tense excitement. The Bears ultimately ended up victorious out of our playoff bracket to face the Dragons.