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rainsilent

The statistical oddity that is my team

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My GHL Cage team was ranked 20th talent wise in the league out of 28 teams at the start of the current season. Now that we have reached the halfway point my team is 4th in the conference and 7th overall in the standings. My team is currently on a run of 13-3-1-4, which certainly helps in that regard. My team started 7-1-1-10 but I did change my offensive tactics so that likely had a hand in the slow start. How much of an outlier is my team? Well, lets look at the rest of the teams stats to see how much of an outlier my team really is.

 

First is the team rankings on the team page. Goals for; 4th with 3.2. Goals against; 3rd with 2.3. Powerplay; 4th with 23.3% Penalty kill; 3rd with 87.2% Well that is just ridiculous. However it doesn't end there as now there are advanced team stats. Granted I don't recall exactly how many games in the advanced stats started to count however here they are none the less. Team shooting percentage; 1st with 10.4%. Team save percentage; 6th with 92.9%. Even strength PDO; 3rd with 103.3%. Shots for; 22nd with 478. Shots against; 3rd with 434. Corsi%; 8th with 52.4%.

 

So outside of shots for my team looks like a statistical monster yet talent wise it is one of the worst. The first question likely is is my team talent really that bad? The honest answer is yes. I only have 2 players with an overall greater than 89. My starting goalie and a winger. I then have 13 players 85-89, including my #2 goalie. The remaining 5 players on my roster are 84, 83, 83, 83, 81. The next likely question is how? Well, the right players used in the right way mean everything. One of those 83 overall players is a winger on my 2nd line. Ok, they only have 12 points in 40 games but they have a fairly good performance rating of 74. That means in the role that I am using them in they are having some success against much better players. However they are clearly still struggling which is clearly indicated by a lack of points and a corsi of 49.6%. They are a great example of a specialized role player. A player with a very specific set of skills that makes them good in a very specific way. Use them in that specific way and you can find some success with them higher in the lineup than their overall skills would indicate that they might be able to do. However do not expect them to be able to dominate because they can't. Typically they will do just enough to provide some sort of positive impact in whatever their specialization is however against better teams it is too easy for them to be shut down. That said with most of my players I emphasize defense to some degree because I realize that my team talent wise is behind in the GHL talent curve. Just looking at the stats indicates, to some degree, how much I am leaning on that team defense and my starting goalie.

 

The next question likely is is this sustainable? Short term for the rest of the season I don't see why not but I don't expect it to stay this good. My team has been incredibly hot in the very short term in a way I don't think will be sustained. So I expect my team to cool off and regress at least somewhat. My team had to fight to get a playoff spot last season and I expect the same this season. Beyond that? Absolutely not. That same player I mentioned above on my 2nd line might be able to provide 2 more years of top 6 play. That is a might. Add on to that the fact that a good chunk of my team is mid 20s to 30 in age and this team might be able to remain competitive for 2-4 more years as it is before it just falls behind too much to stay competitive as my team largely isn't growing talent wise while the teams (meaning most every other team) with younger players are growing. It needs new players to be ready to take over within that time frame and I largely don't have that yet.

 

Clearly my team is a major statistical outlier however it is also one that isn't sustainable. Sure I might be able to do this for another season or two but that is likely it. My team is similar to the Arizona Coyotes from 2011-12. Ok, I grant my team is a bigger statistical outlier than they were however my team is very much like the current Coyotes in that the only truly elite offensive presence I have is a Phil Kessel esque winger. Everyone else is pretty much a role specific player. My 2nd line C is pretty much Michael Grabner reincarnate and my 3rd line C is Derek Stepan with an agitator attitude to him and those are, by far, the best forwards I have outside of my top line. I don't even have an Oliver Ekman-Larsson type in my D core. Instead it is filled with Hjalmarsson types with a Goligoski type thrown in. The most important thing is realizing what you got and how to best work with it.


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We need more posts like this, it would be great to read about other teams as well.

I started power ranking as 1st or 2nd, but the signing of Rackley didn't allow me to sign depth player I really needed. So, power rankings are more for fun then for actual fact. I didn't think that my 2nd line center (Burman) would retire, despite many signs pointing it could happen (lazy, 34yo, etc) and was thinking that recently signed lucrative contract would be enough. Might be good to know mid season which players will retire, as that would be more realistic... not everyone is Byfuglien, I guess :)

Anyways, in a desperate need to get a center I traded 1st pick for skilled 89 rated 24 years old center, but with one big flaw - he didn't fit my style. So it didn't come as surprise that my team got an average start of the season, usually won home game then lost away and so forth. In the process, I managed to trade him away to center that fits my playstyle, but with bad faceoff ability. The team was still unbalanced and I decided to move Rackley in a trade that basically solved all the problems I had - got top noche defensmen, young 2nd line center and excellent 3rd line twoway powerforwardish winger. Oh, and much needed cap space, to solve future depth problems.

After that trade, my team went something like 17-1-1-5 or something, sitting at the first place. Right now my numbers are very similar to Minutemen, 

GOALS PER GAME 5th 3,1
GOALS AGAINST 2nd 2,2
POWERPLAY 6th 23,0%
PENALTY KILL 2nd

88,6%

 

Looking at the advanced stats, Corsi % is 55ish and PDO around 103,4%, somewhat pointing out that team might be overacheaving a bit? But I find these numbers sustainable anyways. I am still in the process of changing defensive strategy, so my last winning streak was made by playing unfamiliar defense tactics. I guess I won't expect less when the bar gets filled. Also, my 2nd twoway line is destroying corsi ratings, going over 60 on average.

The only thing left to be sorted out is Real situation (as he is not getting any younger, as game says), but that is something that will be fixed starting next season. My core players would be 23-24-25 years old, giving me next 10 seasons to focus on draft finally.

Ok, I am losing my thoughts now and rambling so might be time to stop :D


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I think your PDO is all the indication you need. If your team is in the bottom half for shots for and is getting shelled for shots against then clearly you are riding a high team shooting percentage and inflated save percentage. If both of those are trending in your favour you get your current results which is very positive. If one slips but the other remains above expectation then you'll still tread in the middle of the pack. If both of those slip and regress to the mean then you're trending towards a catastrophic collapse. 

I may have misread your post in that I don't know if you team was ranked third for least shots against and 3rd for most shots against. If it is the former then defensively these results may be sustainable and tactically you might have a systematic advantage over your opponents. Although if it is the latter and you are indeed getting shelled for shots, then I'd consider how far you may fall in the standings and look at your lineup on any possible players that may not be in your plans long term but can be sold at the height of their value based on a statistics bump that probably isn't sustainable. 


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For any who aren't entirely sure of how to use the new advanced stats to your advantage, a situation like Peekaboo's is a good example. Being able to recognize if your team is playing above or below their means and taking gambles based on expected shifts in results. 

An example of such would be if your goaltending can't stop a puck and is in the bottom five of the league in save percentage and you find yourself in a scoring slump with an absurdly low shooting percentage. In a situation like this, if you truly believe your roster is immensely underperforming and is overdue for a big hot streak then an opportunistic approach would be the decision to roll the dice with trading your picks. At the end of a cold streak the value of your first round pick may be at its peak for the season and potentially greater than the player you will end up with at the end of the season. If you can leverage that pick for a player that can contribute to your roster over say the 78-83 overall player you'll likely draft at the end of the season given the results return to your favour, then that is the time to flip the pick to add another piece to your roster while also receiving the benefits of your players luck turning in regards to their on ice shooting percentage and team save percentage. 


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I like these posts too, but hate to write that much because I figure no one really wants to read 3-4 paragraphs about my team.  But in a nutshell, my team is the complete OPPOSITE of the Minutemen!

Elite's preseason ranking came in around 11th (too lazy to actually look), which surprised me because I felt my off-season moves (two, get to later) made me a lot better and I missed out on 8th place due to a second tiebreaker, really lousy since I beat 1st place team in our regular season series.  But trying to move on, I felt I'd be somewhere 6-8 in standings and be fine.  I'm currently in 11th after pulling myself up from 13th just a week ago, but here are my rankings:

GOALS PER GAME 17th 2,8
GOALS AGAINST 14th 2,8
POWERPLAY 23th 17,5%
PENALTY KILL 1st

89,1%

 

Based on those numbers alone, I should be right where I expected, which is lower level of playoff teams in my division.  However, I'mm currently 11pts out.  I've improved a lot on my GPG and GA in the past week with a couple minor tweaks.  

That being said, I think my corsi numbers do show my team (taking the whole season into account) has been underachieving.  Two of the three players I added have been totally useless.  I don't feel bad about the trades (gave up SHL players to a demoting team), but they haven't added the extra punch I expected of them.  Hoping there is still time.  Luckily, both on the last year of contracts.  Where I really struggle with the advanced stats is what to do with individual players and analysis.  Is it them, their linemate, role, all of the above?  Also, I feel sometimes the numbers contradict what actually happens big picture team wise, but maybe I'm just not connecting the dots.  


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10 hours ago, Wick Schozen said:

I may have misread your post in that I don't know if you team was ranked third for least shots against and 3rd for most shots against. If it is the former then defensively these results may be sustainable and tactically you might have a systematic advantage over your opponents. Although if it is the latter and you are indeed getting shelled for shots, then I'd consider how far you may fall in the standings and look at your lineup on any possible players that may not be in your plans long term but can be sold at the height of their value based on a statistics bump that probably isn't sustainable. 

 

3rd fewest shots against. My team isn't getting many shots nor are we allowing many. Every other team is more of a balance of high one way and low the other in the way you would expect or in the middle. It was a bit unusual to see so few shots for and so few shots against at the same time.


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I have my team focus set to be balanced normally. I don't have the forward group to really pull off a defensive focus as they are essentially the Maple Leafs light. If I had a forward group that was stronger defensively it would be a more viable option.


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I'm not in your game world but I'm curious to what your average spirit level is for your players? I'm of the mind that spirit is one most misunderstood and highly underrated attributes in the game so I'd be curious to know if in general your forward group has sub 81 spirit.


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I have 4 forwards above 80 and those 4 are in the 90s. 99, 99, 99, 92. All of the other forwards are at or below 80. 80, 77, 75, 74, 69, 66, 59. I also have a defensemen playing forward on my 3rd line. They have 81 spirit. For the record, my 6 defensemen have 99, 98, 95, 93, 89 and 68 spirit. The lack of spirit is part of why I don't think I can play a defensive focused team. To add to this my forwards are low overall in physical and endurance. Both being worse than spirit.

 

I agree with you on spirit. My ideal team would be full of high spirit and defense players and my team playing a ~2000 New Jersey esque style of game.


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Here's my analysis of my team:

We are 3-1 against the Top 2 teams in the East (Dragons, Tide).

We are 0-6 against all the teams below the relegation line (Cats, Pats, Pack, Claws).

We are a bunch of stupid idiots.


*BISCUIT - SEASON 16 - TARNISHED SILVER BISCUIT PLATE CHAMPION*

 

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its weird really. And both playoffs you lost against 7th ranked team, while you did great in the season.

What about underestimation? Is this the problem??


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On 11/28/2019 at 1:51 PM, Peekaboo said:

its weird really. And both playoffs you lost against 7th ranked team, while you did great in the season.

What about underestimation? Is this the problem??

Nope. Just the same two that I get every game - team focus and turnovers weaken momentum (even if my giveaways + opponents takeaways = 1).


*BISCUIT - SEASON 16 - TARNISHED SILVER BISCUIT PLATE CHAMPION*

 

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Yeah, Anders might clear that one up... whats with that team focus, no matter what I have, its always down in negative comments.


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