Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Steve

Advanced stats help

Recommended Posts

9 hours ago, Deadwing said:

I just want to know more about why things happen the way they happen,  so I can adjust accordingly.. you know.. like a hockey team manager would. :)

I agree with this - to an extent. We have some good tools - better even with advanced stats. The randomness Paul alluded to above is fine as well, and I completely buy his point that it makes the game more interesting and challenging, much like it would be in real life. Certainly I wouldn't complain about it or consider quitting GPHM because of some lack of transparency or challenge. 

That said, there are a few things in this game that simply do not make sense when they happen, and there simply are not enough tools or consistency in what is visible, to be able to make conclusions based on it. Now, GPHM is already fantastic and full of great features, so to me, this is just part of the future as Anders and co improve the game.

But here are some things that currently, I just do not understand:

1. Periods of Poor Goaltender Performance: There are games and stretches of games when goalies are simply absolute trash. I expect this multiple times throughout the season now, and it can happen when they are fresh off a rest, when they are Heroic, when all tactical info is green (i.e. you perfectly match an opponent's tactics), and usually for 3-5 games at a time. Sometimes they simply lose you games and end up with a 50 - 60 rating for extended stretches for no particular reason. Some may say that in real life, goalies and players may go through similar stretches (i.e. Bobrovsky at the beginning of the current season). But in a sim like this, it would at least be good to know where this is coming from - i.e. is there a randomness element to player performance, and it just happens, or is this something we as managers can fix?

2. Team Winner Instinct Decreasing: This has happened to me multiple times, and I believe someone else mentioned this as well. A team's Winner Instinct will go down a level, usually from Heroic to Strong, over the course of a few games - and stay there. This happened to me during a) stretches of wins and good performances, b) without any trades or player moves, and c) on teams with an optimal, or close to, balance of player traits. Mystery. 

3. Underestimating Opponent Teams: My teams have consistently underestimated conference leaders and teams on hot streaks higher than them in the standings, as well as teams with better reputation. What this makes me think is "Underestimation" is based on the OVR of a team's players/lines/squad, rather than their position in the standings. Given that there is a clear directive in the design of this game to treat OVR as a loose guideline, this seems like a poor design choice (if true), especially because it can impact games heavily.

4. And finally, the dreaded:  "The team struggled to gain possession in the neutral zone and had to start all attacks in the defensive zone" assistant report item. I get this sporadically in games I lose, and usually lose comfortably, but I have no clear idea of what it means. I've gotten this when my defence played Aggressive Forecheck, and I've gotten this when I've played Spread, as well as all kinds of combinations of attacking tactics. I initially thought this had to do with an opponent playing Dump and Chase and keeping my team in our own zone, but I've also had this in games where my team had more O-zone time. All I know is that I inevitably lose games with this message, it seems to appear without rhyme or reason, and though there is clearly something going on here, I have not yet discovered what it is.

 

Interested to hear more thoughts on these and any other specific items - whether the other managers here agree or not.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/21/2019 at 6:33 PM, Deadwing said:

I agree on that we need more tools and more transparency to determine what works well and what does not. The advanced stats are great, but they only go so far. I understand that RNG is always a part of the game, and it should be, a random chance of luck is a large portion of a real hockey game as well. Sometimes, and quite often actually, it feels like stuff is happening without clear understanding of what exactly is wrong, and that is not something I like in a manager game. It leaves me in the dark concerning pretty much everything. Great example is the current season. I started strong and won the first five games, then I dove deep and borderlined a crisis team, and then, out of nowhere, everything clicked and I began to perform well.

Why? I didn't do anything drastic.

I had a balanced team to begin with. My winner instinct sucked in the beginning and it keeps on sucking to this day, but it doesn't seem to have any effect to my team's performance. Suddenly everything just seems to work like a dream. My 1st and 2nd goalies are both doing well now, but they both had a streak of really bad games... why? A single game is easy to swallow. Okay.. shit happens in a real hockey game too, but over a longer period of time good players can turn it around and excel. In GPHM it seems to be quite random.... why?

I just want to know more about why things happen the way they happen,  so I can adjust accordingly.. you know.. like a hockey team manager would. :)

At the risk of coming across as argumentative (which I will assure you I am not), allow me to play Devil's Advocate and think about this a bit differently.

1)  I started strong and won the first five games, then I dove deep and borderlined a crisis team, and then, out of nowhere, everything clicked and I began to perform well.  Why? I didn't do anything drastic.  There are two things that are common knowledge if you frequent the forums and message boards.  First, beginning of season results are somewhat random as players are building up their confidence.  Second, players (and teams) suffer from slumps in this game as Anders has pointed out.  There is a hidden trait which impacts certain players longer/shorter slumps than others.  So I think what you were seeing was a combination of both those factors above.  Not to mention, I would hardly consider that a "deep dive" and "crisis team".  You lost 6 of 7 games early on.  Most of those games were against REALLY good teams and 3 of those losses were by a single goal.  I don't think results like that are out of the ordinary, nor would they constitute a crisis.  Sh*t look at my team over the past month.  I was well above .500 and hovering in 3rd place most of the season, then out of nowhere I lost 9 of 10 games.  And now I've won 8 of my last 9.  The game can just get streaky like that sometimes - even without changing a thing.  Managers can only do so much... sometimes you are just at the mercy of your players.

2) My 1st and 2nd goalies are both doing well now, but they both had a streak of really bad games... why?  Probably due to the slump factor.  My goalies went through the same thing - and from his post it appears Alex's did as well.  It sounds like it is just part of the game.  OR... just maybe the players you were going against were having really good games.  Why do people always assume it is their own team that is failing?  Maybe the other team just played better.

3) I just want to know more about why things happen the way they happen,  so I can adjust accordingly.. you know.. like a hockey team manager would.  I still feel like when people say this, what they are really saying is "I want to know what the right move to make is in order to win games without doing advanced research or taking any risks".  My response to that is to try different things and take those risks!  If you make a bad move, who cares.  It's only a game.  Hell, I acquired a 22 year old 92 rated goalie two seasons ago.  He didn't play well at all and I attributed it to some hidden trait.  So you know what I did... I traded his ass!  It was probably a bad move, but who cares.  It's part of the fun of the game.  Not knowing the exact right answer on how to react doesn't mean you can't react.  Mix up your lines, trade a player, try different tactics, try different roles, the options, to me, seem endless.

You are in 3rd place in SHL East.  The top 2 teams are relegated GHL teams with stacked rosters.  You are obviously doing something right, no?  I would consider making the playoffs season after season and continually improving to be successful, despite not promoting to GHL.  SHL teams are really in an unfair situation having to complete with relegated GHL teams.  But either way, I would consider what you are doing to be successful.


*BISCUIT - SEASON 16 - TARNISHED SILVER BISCUIT PLATE CHAMPION*

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/22/2019 at 4:28 AM, AlexanderRasputin said:

1. Periods of Poor Goaltender Performance: There are games and stretches of games when goalies are simply absolute trash. I expect this multiple times throughout the season now, and it can happen when they are fresh off a rest, when they are Heroic, when all tactical info is green (i.e. you perfectly match an opponent's tactics), and usually for 3-5 games at a time. Sometimes they simply lose you games and end up with a 50 - 60 rating for extended stretches for no particular reason. Some may say that in real life, goalies and players may go through similar stretches (i.e. Bobrovsky at the beginning of the current season). But in a sim like this, it would at least be good to know where this is coming from - i.e. is there a randomness element to player performance, and it just happens, or is this something we as managers can fix?

2. Team Winner Instinct Decreasing: This has happened to me multiple times, and I believe someone else mentioned this as well. A team's Winner Instinct will go down a level, usually from Heroic to Strong, over the course of a few games - and stay there. This happened to me during a) stretches of wins and good performances, b) without any trades or player moves, and c) on teams with an optimal, or close to, balance of player traits. Mystery. 

3. Underestimating Opponent Teams: My teams have consistently underestimated conference leaders and teams on hot streaks higher than them in the standings, as well as teams with better reputation. What this makes me think is "Underestimation" is based on the OVR of a team's players/lines/squad, rather than their position in the standings. Given that there is a clear directive in the design of this game to treat OVR as a loose guideline, this seems like a poor design choice (if true), especially because it can impact games heavily.

4. And finally, the dreaded:  "The team struggled to gain possession in the neutral zone and had to start all attacks in the defensive zone" assistant report item. I get this sporadically in games I lose, and usually lose comfortably, but I have no clear idea of what it means. I've gotten this when my defence played Aggressive Forecheck, and I've gotten this when I've played Spread, as well as all kinds of combinations of attacking tactics. I initially thought this had to do with an opponent playing Dump and Chase and keeping my team in our own zone, but I've also had this in games where my team had more O-zone time. All I know is that I inevitably lose games with this message, it seems to appear without rhyme or reason, and though there is clearly something going on here, I have not yet discovered what it is.

Interested to hear more thoughts on these and any other specific items - whether the other managers here agree or not.

1) I elaborated on this in my response to Deadwing's post.  I doubt there's much manager's can fix - other than attempting to find a goalie who isn't impacted much by slumps.  But again, there's more factors than just your goalie having a streak of bad games.  Other team's players could be on good streaks, the player could just be having a down season, team could be in a slump overall, maybe it's not even your goalie, but a defender or two causing it.  But I've seen it happen to almost every team.

2) Agree on this.  And it was me who previously mentioned it, although I don't think WI has that much impact overall.  There is only 1 team in the GHL East with Heroic WI and they are pushing relegation.  I think we're all in the same boat here.  From what I understand, you need a combination of Heroic players, not many Nervous ones, a few Arrogant and Cocky players and players with high reputation.  But in the end, a players actual skill means much more.

3) Agree.  Oddly enough, the only team that my team underestimated almost all season is yours.  I'm not sure it's something that can be adjusted for.  Probably more something that is just noted after losses.

4) This one seems to be random as well.  I get it 4-5 times per season.  I don't really pay much attention to the assistant comments anymore as I feel there's a lot of stuff that doesn't matter all that much.


*BISCUIT - SEASON 16 - TARNISHED SILVER BISCUIT PLATE CHAMPION*

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's mostly momentary frustration when things happen without obvious reason. I'm not looking for the "winning formula". I'm not good enough manager to straight up say that if I do everything right, then I should win every game. Hockey doesn't work that way in the real world, and it shouldn't do that in a game that attempts to simulate that. Often times I let losses go by with a shrug, mostly because I can clearly see performance issues, playing against a vastly superior team (think Finland - Soviet Union in the 80's) or some other clear failure to execute the game plan. Quite often losses may happen without a clear reason and that's fine too— there is such thing as luck in hockey as well. It's when these mysterious failures begin to pile into an overwhelming mountain without anything clear to fix, things become a little foggy to me. What to do when there's nothing obvious to be done? :) This is why I ranted about having more information at hand. It might help or it might not. I do admit that when things go south bad enough my ability to see problems, no matter how obvious they might be, becomes less and less.

 

Usually, the best option is to walk away from the game for a day or two and then take a second look with fresh eyes. I still think the more information there is the better, but I do apologize my rather uncalled-for outburst. Sometimes even the combined knowledge of Steve Yzerman, Stan Bowman and Ray Shero won't save you if the upset and frustration have already melted your brain into mush.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Deadwing said:

 I do apologize my rather uncalled-for outburst. Sometimes even the combined knowledge of Steve Yzerman, Stan Bowman and Ray Shero won't save you if the upset and frustration have already melted your brain into mush.

I actually didn't take your post as ranting or an outburst.  At all.  What I'm coming to find out is how differently I view this game than others.  I could be wrong in a lot of what I am saying... who knows.  Maybe we do need more info and I'm the only one here who thinks more info would be a bad thing.

On that note, I really hope you get to the GHL soon.  Good luck with the playoffs this season.


*BISCUIT - SEASON 16 - TARNISHED SILVER BISCUIT PLATE CHAMPION*

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^Agree, I also don't think your post was an outburst at all, Deadwing. I think all of this provokes interesting discussion at the very least, and uncovers things about this sim that are common between managers, as well as some key differences, as Paul mentioned above. Discussion is better than no discussion at all.

I enjoy seeing more managers share any of their observations or complaints/proud moments, whether I agree with them or not, so keep it up! 

Spill your dirty water here, or just talk about your team, or compliment others - all of that makes for a very alive experience.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Paul T said:

3) Agree.  Oddly enough, the only team that my team underestimated almost all season is yours.  I'm not sure it's something that can be adjusted for.  Probably more something that is just noted after losses.

4) This one seems to be random as well.  I get it 4-5 times per season.  I don't really pay much attention to the assistant comments anymore as I feel there's a lot of stuff that doesn't matter all that much.

 

I'm skipping on one and two because one got answered pretty much spot on and two I just ignore. I pretty much always have. That said I wanted to add on to three and four here if I may.

 

I have no idea how to deal with underestimation. I have no idea what triggers it. I saw Rasputin's idea as for why and while I have no solid proof to otherwise I've not seen it work that way a few times myself.

 

As for struggling to gain possession in the neutral zone it doesn't mean much ultimately. Watch a NHL game and note how many times there is a loose puck in the neutral zone and how often there is a fight for it. It isn't that often. Most NHL teams start a majority of possessions in their own end. I completely overlook this in the assistants notes. As I do the team focus hurt team momentum. I've changed the focus every way possible for a game and seemingly no matter how I changed it up it wouldn't go away.

 

9 hours ago, Deadwing said:

I still think the more information there is the better, but I do apologize my rather uncalled-for outburst. Sometimes even the combined knowledge of Steve Yzerman, Stan Bowman and Ray Shero won't save you if the upset and frustration have already melted your brain into mush.

 

There is no reason for you to apologize. I think it is safe to say that we all have experienced that frustration to some degree. We all will again too. I went through it for the first quarter of the season with my buzzer team. All because my goalies got off to a cold start. Granted I also knew that I had a flawed team because I didn't have a good playmaker on my team which hurt my offense but theoretically my team still should have been decent. Instead it completely flopped. There are going to be moments of frustration. The difficulty is in piecing together what and why. Some of it we don't, and maybe never will, understand. However real GMs go through the same thing in real life. We all can name teams in all kinds of sports that had a lot of talent and underachieved or the opposite.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We definitely need a better understanding how to fix winner instinct.

Mine went to blue after some trades, but slowly, as season progressed. Traits of traded players weren't so different. Its frustrating not knowing what causes it and its even more frustrating knowing I would need to blindly trade and hope for better result.

Regarding underestimation - that needs to be fixed asap. In NHL, there is rarely underestimation, on that level. If it is, its more certain player does it, then whole team.

Few seasons ago, my former Buzzer team lost 2 playoff games and then for some reason out of nowhere decided to underestimate opponent and lose easily.

Thats plain stupid and does suggest there is some RNG where there shoudn't be.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/23/2019 at 10:44 PM, rainsilent said:

I think it is safe to say that we all have experienced that frustration to some degree. We all will again too.

...

There are going to be moments of frustration. The difficulty is in piecing together what and why. Some of it we don't, and maybe never will, understand. However real GMs go through the same thing in real life. We all can name teams in all kinds of sports that had a lot of talent and underachieved or the opposite.

Yup.

Also, why would I want to waste my time playing a game that doesn't provide a challenge.


*BISCUIT - SEASON 16 - TARNISHED SILVER BISCUIT PLATE CHAMPION*

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It was dropping somewhat before Real trade, but dropped even more after. But I swapped the backup goalie before, so when you put all traits on the table, there are almoust the same.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's weird for sure.  At first I thought it could be goalie reputation, but the Patriots goalie doesn't have much rep and is still Heroic.  I wonder if there's any truth to the transactions theory and that players need time to play together to increase it and making multiple trades per season brings it down.  Still a mystery right now.  I can see how your luck in OT/SO can get frustrating.  But look on the bright side... after I lose tomorrow, you will have an easy 3 vs. 6 playoff matchup against a team who consistently fails to do anything in the playoffs.


*BISCUIT - SEASON 16 - TARNISHED SILVER BISCUIT PLATE CHAMPION*

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Haha, don't worry. I threw this season chances away to sort my goalie situation. Starting next season I am getting top goalie for both my picks, so kinda wanted to cash in on Real when I could.

My team got a decent run with those 2 flawed goalies.

The only thing that bugs me is when I can't figure out what am I doing, and WI is the case here. I do feel a bit concerned, as game used to have mechanics that didn't work properly and this might be one of them.

I know I am criticising alot, but I just want a better product :P


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Peekaboo said:

The only thing that bugs me is when I can't figure out what am I doing, and WI is the case here. I do feel a bit concerned, as game used to have mechanics that didn't work properly and this might be one of them.

I understand the concern.  Occasionally things happen that just don't seem right... like the computer led Angels mopping the floor with the #1 Prairie Stars for the 2nd time this season.  But I've seen weirder stuff in real life so that's what I tell myself.  In terms of "not figuring out what you're doing"... I know I'm not taking this in the exact context as you mean it, but I don't think anyone really knows what they are doing, especially in terms of WI.  Teams that are Heroic most likely got there by accident and would probably trade for better players even if it meant lowering their WI.  You are current GHL champ and heading back to the playoffs, so in that sense, you know what you are doing - or at least enough to be highly successful.  I've typically managed to keep my TW and WI high, but am aware my team was major holes.  Need goalie, an offensive Dman and more scoring depth.  I think every team has holes and every manager still has a ton to learn about the game. 

 

(Another tangent) I know a few other managers have expressed being frustrated at the game and I have to laugh a bit because in reality, only 1 out of 28 teams in GHL wins every season.  The other 27 are likely frustrated at something or another.  6 teams will get relegated... they are frustrated.  Another 6 won't make the playoffs... frustrated.  15 teams will get eliminated in the playoffs, and so on.  That's why I really feel like managers should find other reasons to enjoy the game aside from wins and losses.  Only 1 of 28 GHL teams are happy in the end.  Well, 2, because I could care less about losing.  Just yell at my players and move on 🤬😁


*BISCUIT - SEASON 16 - TARNISHED SILVER BISCUIT PLATE CHAMPION*

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't mind losing, really. I am competetive as it gets, but I am in sports all my life, losing is not something that makes me upset.

Regarding games like this, I just want to know what am I doing. I want my WI up and I want to know how. Thats all :)


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Peekaboo said:

I want my WI up and I want to know how.

Part of the reason my Buzzer team started at the bottom was that it gave me the chance to play with that stuff. From that the conclusion that I have come to is don't bother worrying about it.  Team composition and talent is so much more an important thing. Start of the season for my Cage team my WI was blue. Now it is green and I never made a trade. No clue as to why that happened. Don't care either as I don't see it as that relevant. Especially following me messing with it for 4 seasons with my Buzzer team.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create a GM profile or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create a GM profile

Sign up for a GM profile in our community. It's free & easy!

Create a GM profile

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...