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rainsilent

My thoughts on endurance

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Once again, I think the beauty of this game is that managers can all have a completely different perspective of what is happening, which gives managers a unique experience.  I'm not sure there's any "wrong" opinions to what everyone is saying.  There are probably elements of truth to all of it, some just believe in certain things deeper than others.  At this point, no one is going to change anyone's opinion.  What's funny to me is that two managers who have completely different ideas about what is important in building a team are both highly successful.  It sounds like flowbish is crushing it in Buzzer and I can vouch for both Alex and rainsilent in Cage.  Alex has a team that I can't seem to beat unless his starting goalie sleeps in and misses the game and rainsilent has had more success with less roster talent than any manager I've seen, which dates back to Biscuit.

Keep debating if you must... who the hell am I to tell anyone what to do, but I think at this point, the opinions have been made... and if you are all anything like me, you are stubborn and not going to change what you already believe 🤘😝🤘


*BISCUIT - SEASON 16 - TARNISHED SILVER BISCUIT PLATE CHAMPION*

 

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18 hours ago, flowbish1 said:

You never even went close to drafting Dieter Hawk.

 

Really? You don't say? Kind of hard to be close when my team is in the BHL. Also, check the spelling of the player name.

 

18 hours ago, flowbish1 said:

Talk about long term planning and vision, your plan didn't work at all, but since you built a flawed team, you are now bringing up excuses.

 

It wasn't long term planning at all. I built the team flawed deliberately to see if I could finish 10th first. I then saw the available prospects for the next draft that same year and got the idea to try to follow up finishing 10th with then trying to finish first in the SHL the following year. It isn't excuses so much as what actually happened. Go look at the records yourself.

 

18 hours ago, flowbish1 said:

My teams have cut a swath of destruction all the way up the GHL, yours didn't at all.

 

I very much doubt you were experimenting to the extent I was. My aim for this team has never been to deliberately promote each season, excluding the plan to try to win the SHL to draft Haulk. That plan never got beyond the planning stage for obvious reasons. I could just as easily 'cut a swath of destruction' all the way up to the GHL as well if I made that my goal, but it isn't. Instead I am literally messing around with things, not taking promoting seriously, and I am still promoting nearly every season. Nearly every other manager is actually trying to do their best and most of them still aren't finding the success that I am when I am just messing around.

 

I'm not shifting goal posts and I'm not making excuses. I'm telling you what I have been doing and what has been happening with my team, genuinely. You want to be this naive then that is on you. I find it rather sad that you feel the need to gloat at all, as if it actually means something. Take your pathetic ego elsewhere.

 

15 hours ago, AlexanderRasputin said:

 but it is interesting that you addressed everything except the actual point I was making: that your “promoted teams that do well, do so because they gain Team Confidence faster” cannot be true, simply on the basis of what we see in the standings, in the example I provided.

 

Because I have addressed this in the conversation prior. Addressing it again would just be going in unnecessary circles. To reiterate for you though, the standings show no proof whatsoever that what I said cannot be true.

 

15 hours ago, AlexanderRasputin said:

Your vaunted Occam’s Razor, as I stated, even points toward this being caused by one element, rather than vague elements of randomness.

 

It doesn't quite go that far. You are stretching Occam's Razor well beyond what it is meant for here with exactly what you are saying. As for the rest of what you said about it? I'll just leave it at the fact that modern scientists and engineers, not just use it, but rely on it with reason. I'll take the fact that scientists and engineers still rely on it to mean more than those claimed 'studies' of yours. Not that there isn't any truth to be found in those studies but the people I would put my money on say otherwise regarding Occam's Razor.

 

15 hours ago, AlexanderRasputin said:

What you are pointing out about recent confidence etc, while correct, doesn’t in any way address either my earlier assertion or support your own. It’s a separate stand-alone fact. It doesn’t explain why teams with better lineups and higher confidence than Metairie and Riversdale are lower than them in the standings. 

 

Yes. It is a separate stand alone fact. That you got correct. Hence why I brought up the positive feedback loop. That is the explanation. I assume we can agree on the fact that teams with high confidence play better than when they have low confidence when all other things are equal. I then assume that we can agree that confidence is built the fastest when a given team strings together a winning streak at the start of the season. Can we then agree on the fact that the randomness aspect of everything means that any team can be the beneficiary of this fact at the start of every season? Is it then not down to mathematical certainty that better teams will inevitably be behind worse teams early in the season due to this? Need I remind you that the game engine doesn't just hand the 'better teams' the win because they are the 'better teams'?

 

The entire problem with your argument here has been that you aren't actually analyzing anything. Instead you are just taking a snapshot view of the current moment that is only telling the current story while trying to claim that it tells the entire story up to this point when it doesn't at all. Had you looked at the team confidence of those two teams when they were off to their hot starts and compared them to the more talented teams that were struggling out of the gate you would have seen that those two teams had higher team confidence and likely higher player confidence too. Why did the two worse teams have higher confidence? Because they were winning. Once the better teams that struggled out of the gate build up their confidence they will start to catch, and will likely pass, those two teams in the standings.

 

16 hours ago, AlexanderRasputin said:

Again, I am completely fine with entertaining the possibility that the “boost” I mentioned is something entirely different to anything I’ve said. It’s just not anything you’ve said, either. 

 

Then what is it? Truth be told, I wasn't admitting the possibility that I was wrong earlier. That was sarcasm. My explanation is entirely based upon what is in the help files and combining that with statistical theory. As much of a 'wall of faulty logic' that they might be I see the help files as the gospel to how this game works. Figuring out what is going on in game and why is simply trying to put the pieces of the puzzle together based upon what is in the help files and applying them to statistical theory. Statistical theory isn't exactly complex math either.

 

A little story for you that has a connection to this. Season 6 of Biscuit I finished 1st in the league.

Game World Biscuit Season 6 GHL Cedar Rapids Minutemen 1st 42-4-4-10 Playoff 3

The next season my team started off slow. Very slow. 15 games in I was dead last in the standings. I asked Anders what was going on. Anders said that I could figure it out. No, Anders wasn't being snarky. We had talked about the workings of the game before. He never gave me direct yes answers though, only no or not quite when I had something wrong. I started looking at everything trying to figure out why my team started off so slow. It was then that I actually noticed team confidence for the first time. I watched it for a little over a week for nearly every GHL team and noted the results. I asked Anders about what I had noticed in terms of team confidence and asked if that had anything to do with my team's slow start. He replied with just a smiley. The remainder of that season, which was about 40 games, my team only lost 5 games in regulation and ended up 4th in the standings.

Game World Biscuit Season 7 GHL Cedar Rapids Minutemen 4th 37-1-4-18

Playoff 2

The next few seasons I paid close attention to the confidence of every GHL team for the first 15 games and noted the results. Sure enough, there was a pattern clear as day. Every team that got off to a fast start built up team and player confidence quicker than every other team. Every team that got off to a slow start had the team confidence sink a little until they started winning consistently. The teams that got off to fast starts were seemingly random with no discernible connection to results from the season prior. The same for teams that got off to slow starts. Things are no different now in the game engine than they were those 3 long years ago so this very thing is still what is going on. You are welcome to disagree and believe what you want though.

         
             

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2 hours ago, rainsilent said:

It wasn't long term planning at all. I built the team flawed deliberately to see if I could finish 10th first. I then saw the available prospects for the next draft that same year and got the idea to try to follow up finishing 10th with then trying to finish first in the SHL the following year. It isn't excuses so much as what actually happened. Go look at the records yourself.

You contradict yourself. You start by saying it wasn't long term planning but you describe a long term plan. You have to decide, you can't have both. And trying to finish deliberatly 10th, and then saying the game decided that you shouldn't, well, that is sad.

2 hours ago, rainsilent said:

I find it rather sad that you feel the need to gloat at all, as if it actually means something. Take your pathetic ego elsewhere.

I wasn't gloating when i said that my team cut a swath of destruction. In fact, it is almost the only time i patted myself on the back, since i've shown you real number. The swath of destruction is real and used as an example. How would you call it? 

A s far as ego goes, well you always bring it back to you, you pat yourself on the back endlessly for every thing you do and think, and you don't seem to care much about others peoples taught and opinions. 

2 hours ago, rainsilent said:

I could just as easily 'cut a swath of destruction' all the way up to the GHL as well if I made that my goal, but it isn't. I

Go ahead, do it just as easily. I challenge you to beat beat my numbers. Do it, and we'll believe you. 5 season, 5 promotions, And re-write the teams record books in every league. Do it, easily, i dare you.


RIversdale Heroes, Buzzer

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5 hours ago, rainsilent said:

I assume we can agree on the fact that teams with high confidence play better than when they have low confidence when all other things are equal. I then assume that we can agree that confidence is built the fastest when a given team strings together a winning streak at the start of the season. Can we then agree on the fact that the randomness aspect of everything means that any team can be the beneficiary of this fact at the start of every season? Is it then not down to mathematical certainty that better teams will inevitably be behind worse teams early in the season due to this?

I think that right there sums up your entire approach in this whole argument. Three correct assumptions and then an entirely left-field nonsense conclusion.

Better teams will inevitably be behind worse teams early in the season?  

Not to mention that, again, you are completely ignoring the fact that we are now 40 games into the season - far from early. 30 games is even far from early. Metairie and Riversdale have Ok/Good confidence and are ahead of stronger teams with Perfect confidence. Metairie hasn't even had a win streak over 2 games since Day 24 of the season. It's not just Confidence and it's not just randomness. Just face it already. Have the grace to accept you don't know everything about the mechanics of this game. Your "proof" being Anders' smiley is great evidence of that and I can't believe you don't see it. You are building a house of cards on vagueness, base-level understanding of randomness, and incomplete observation. 

I applaud your determination, but to keep pushing your argument as concrete truth, after all that's been said, is utter nonsense. I know you are a veteran and you clearly know much about this sim, which I respect, but I will continue shooting you down if need be.

Early season success of promoted teams cannot be just chalked up to confidence and randomness (or "statistical theory", which you very strangely use as a synonym). You have provided no evidence that holds up to counter that and that leaves room open for other interpretations. I suggest you leave it at that, my friend - but if you want to continue, I'm game. 


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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Peekaboo said:

uhm, flowbish... I hope you dont mind me asking, how old are you? 😁

12

Edited by flowbish1

RIversdale Heroes, Buzzer

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